%T Statistical Aspects of Hydrology in the Amazon River Basin
%8 dec. 1979
%9 Dissertação de Mestrado
%A Yanasse, Corina Costa Freitas,
%E Dunsmuir, Willian,
%I Massachusetts Institute Of Technology
%K séries temporais, estatística.
%X The prediction of the Negro River height at Manaus, Brasil, has very important economical interests, mainly for the people living in that region. This work is an attempt to find a model which explains the heights of the Negro river. The Negro river height data is checked for nonstationarities over the record length. The produce used to find the model involves an adjustment of the series by the seasonal means and standart deviations. Some models were proposed and comparisons for predicting river heights for one, two and three steps ahead were done. The chosen model was an autoregressive model in which the coefficients vary with each month. The seasonal autoregressive model is compared with other suggested models in the literature.